Economics is astrology for men by Jill Veerman

Submitting my column has turned into a sacred ritual that starts with loafing, excused as naturalistic research, and ends with a cordial 23:59 email. Somewhere between, I Google “economics”, a sad hail-mary, fruitless – until today. Nestled between tired headlines on tariffs and trade deals, a subtle trend emerged. Titles with “economist” fell into two categories: “Economists say you should (...)” and “Economists were wrong about (...)”. To gauge public opinion, I turned to Reddit and searched “Economists” and “Trust”. A thread popped up: “Why do people not trust what economists are saying?” The comments were brutal, Bleckany: “Economics is astrology for men”, Ohtar1: “Economics is ideology with makeup,” and Ksiyoto: “Because economists have predicted 7 of the last 5 recessions”. Catchy but scathing, so why do people not trust economists? 

Economic theory hinges on assumptions. Writing ceteris paribus

on my econ papers used to make me feel deviously intelligent, and it proves the criticism. The Latin term meaning “all things equal” is used in models to isolate effects. Like, if the price of eggs increased, people would buy fewer eggs, ceteris paribus holding tastes, income, and substitutes constant. This is not realistic, and perhaps why redditor Daisy-duke said that “There is a reason why economics is colloquially known as the dismal science”. Although I don't think anyone uses the word “dismal” colloquially, her statement strikes a chord. 

But what her comment misses is the value of understanding mechanisms. While models don't perfectly mirror reality, they help us grasp important aspects. The economy is like a body with many organs, but unlike medicine, where disease can be targeted, it’s hit by countless intertwining viruses and stimulants. In this economical body, you might say: “Well, the reason you are nauseous is because of the bucket party, but it could also be because you are eating like shit, not exercising, and spending 10 hours looking at your screen every day”. It helps to say that when only considering your going-out habits, this may well be the cause, but remember, there are many other things affecting your health. Especially in economics, where we use graphs, it would be inscrutable to try to plot every alternative explanation. 

Of course, this is not helpful to the layman who reads headlines and doesn't care about the nuances of economic modelling. A deleted account states: “I'm personally sick and tired of being told over and over again that the economy's fine when I can't afford food”. It's true, macroeconomic statistics don't apply to individuals; no one is the average. For example, the Netherlands has a relatively high GDP, but inflation levels above EU average and around 540,000 people living in poverty. 

These considerations help explain why some liken economics to astrology, but prophesying a recession is different than pulling a tarot card. Economists base predictions on data and history, but none have a glass orb to see the future. So, despite aims to critique economics by comparing it to spirituality, it is actually a lack of magic that hinders an economist's ability to know how AI and a pandemic will exactly impact the world.